Negotiations on the EU-Syria Association Agreement were concluded in October 2004, but the agreement has yet to be ratified. Nobody seems to know when this will happen.
Roger Melki, economist
After more than 6 years of painful negotiations, Syria is the last Mediterranean country to sign the Association Agreement with the European Union. Normally, this agreement can no longer be modified by any of the parties. No supranational or national European authority could call into question the clauses of the convention during its phase of ratification, neither totally or partially. On the other hand, important delays could be observed before the implementation of all the agreement clauses.
One ton of paper
One of the main delay factors is linked to the size of the text adopted by the two parties: more than 1,500 pages. This handicap is the outcome of the Syrian authorities’ will to include a long list of tariffs and customs regulations in the agreement. By definition, the process of examining a document of such a scope by various authorities is long and fastidious, since political conditions for approbation come into play. That problem is amplified by the complexity of translation insofar as the agreement is to be translated in more than 20 European languages. The national authorities of the 27 countries of the European Union will have to approve the texts. Afterwards, it must be ratified by the Council of Europe, then by the European Parliament. Finally, the parliaments of the 27 E.U. countries are called to ratify the agreement before it goes into effect.
Declining optimism
The arrival of Syrian president Bashar El Assad to power in 2000 and the formation of a team dedicated to lead negotiations with Europe constituted a source of hope for a quick adoption of the final text. But optimism was short-lived, and the new minds in power were shocked to see the bitter reality in the field, particularly the lasting presence of former guards.
According to Brussels, increasing the pressure on Syria is useless. Instead, it might be more beneficial to avoid penalizing the country and reducing the Euro-Syrian cooperation to its simplest political expression. In fact, the agreement includes many tempting clauses for Damascus. By denying those advantages to Syrian deciders, we take the risk of turning them against Europe. Conversely, if support promises were presented as accompanying measures, Syrian authorities would be encouraged to yield some ground.
On the other hand, bringing together Syria and Europe would facilitate the introduction of internal reforms and allow Damascus to redefine its external relations, particularly with Lebanon, on a healthy basis. The cooperation with Europe will necessarily be a catalyst for pushing forward into positive relationships with South Mediterranean countries.
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What does the opposition think?
According to the Syrian opposition, Europe is making a mistake by counting on one renewal movement inside the Baath party to ensure the country’s political and economic restructuring. Five years after the arrival of Bachar el-Assad to power, the team of reformers is dispersed and the Syrian regime is not suggesting but timid reforms, despite growing international pressure and despite the setbacks following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and withdrawal from Lebanon.
This assessment does not prevent Syrian opposition leaders from advocating quick implementation of the Association Agreement with Europe. To them, this cooperation could reinforce Syria’s potential development. Thus, without the help of civil society and the renewal of political leadership, it is quite impossible for Syria to engage in a strategic partnership or an ambitious neighborhood policy.
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