A zone of peace and prosperity? Really?!

Economic and political development achieved in the region following the Barcelona declaration is not to be neglected. Still, all countries are not equally gifted. A brief outlook.   

The Barcelona declaration, 1995, was not meant to be part of a reform program. Unlike the process of accession to the European Union, where “reform” is the key issue, the Barcelona process cannot play the role of a real catalyst in this matter. This accord was more of a memory jogger that has been drafted by well-intentioned diplomats to look after complicated negotiations between Europe, its Arab partners and Israel. This accord has quickly been ratified by the heads of governments who were happy with the well-written declaration and did not dwell on the means of implementing the three objectives of peace, stability and prosperity. Thus, the accord seemed to be doomed to a general document that citizens and politicians refer to when looking to implement reforms and changes.

Should we evaluate the economic and political development in the Mediterranean region, we could find more positive elements than negative:

• First, citizens and governments are presently aware of the necessity of establishing political reforms. Some countries have already taken the necessary steps to do so. Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and Morocco are already in the leading pack of countries working on political, legal and judiciary reforms. The other countries have no other alternative but to copy them. Moreover, and thanks to the media, citizens of the Arab world are aware of what is happening in neighboring countries.
• Second, the level of corruption became more or less endurable, mainly in the group of Mediterranean countries that are well integrated to the international community. Jordan and Tunisia namely are the first in line to fight corruption in the region.
• Third, population growth has considerably slowed down. Thus, work opportunities for the years 2015-2020 seem more promising, except for Jordan, Palestine, and Egypt who should exert more efforts to slow down their reproduction rates.
• Fourth, income per capita has increased in all countries in the region, except for Palestine. Unfortunately, only Tunisia, Lebanon and Egypt were capable of reaching an annual increase of 3%, in an attempt to minimize the gap with Europe.
• Fifth, economic stability is from now on more established in the region, except in Lebanon.

Could Europe help?
Except for the Israeli-Palestinian and the Moroccan-Algerian (on the Western Sahara) conflicts, luckily, no military conflicts, no combats have taken place in the Mediterranean, and no significant material or human losses have been registered, like in Iraq. Nevertheless, the military budget in the region remains very high (in comparison with the GDP): it is indeed double the same budget of the European Union! Lebanon, Jordan and Syria still spend more money on military reinforcements than on education. This is not the best way to respond to international competition in this field; it does not also contribute to a better quality of life for the middle class. In brief, the picture is not as sad as some would think. However, the rest of the world has made substantial economical and sociopolitical progress meanwhile, so that the Mediterranean finds itself lagging behind.

Undoubtedly, Europe can serve as an example in the way it manages reforms. However, these could not be copied blindly. Before rushing into implementing them, one should look carefully at the way others made use of those reforms to solve similar problems. Lately, Europe is the continent that came up with the biggest number of reforms. This is the case precisely of the new member states, which came up with reforms that Mediterranean countries should be inspired from in their political reconstruction, rather than looking at what the old member states have done.

Europe cannot feel secure unless the citizens in the bordering countries live a decent life: having good job opportunities in their own countries would prevent them from taking Europe as a work “paradise”, where all their dreams can come true. Europe has well understood this reality, and its recent policy of good neighborhood with the surrounding countries is the proof. However, in order to reach the desired goals in a reasonable time frame, the Union should invest more human, political and financial resources. Mediterranean countries should also follow the path of Central Europe with its genuine commitment, even if becoming a member state of the Union is not even a possibility.

Eberhard Rhein
Advisor at the European Policy Centre, Brussels
(Excerpts from Cahiers Euromed, 2005)